Why Trump Achieved a Breakthrough in Gaza Yet Faces Challenges Regarding Putin Concerning Ukraine
Reports of an impending American-Russian presidential meeting have been greatly exaggerated, apparently.
Only a few days after President Trump announced he intended to confer with Russian President Vladimir Putin in the Hungarian capital - "within two weeks or so" - the high-level talks has been suspended indefinitely.
A initial get-together by the two nations' top diplomats has been called off, as well.
"I don't want to have a wasted meeting," Donald Trump informed reporters at the White House on a recent weekday. "I don't want a pointless effort, so I will observe what happens."
- Trump states he did not want a 'wasted meeting' after plan for Putin talks shelved
- Disappointment in Ukraine's capital as Zelensky leaves Washington without results
The on-again, off-again meeting is another twist in the president's attempts to broker an conclusion to hostilities in Ukraine – a subject of renewed focus for the American leader after he orchestrated a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the Palestinian territory.
While making remarks in Egypt last week to commemorate that ceasefire agreement, Trump addressed Steve Witkoff, with a new request.
"It is essential to get the Russian situation done," he said.
However, the circumstances that aligned to make a Gaza breakthrough achievable for the negotiation team may be difficult to duplicate in a conflict in Ukraine that has been ongoing for nearing four years.
Less Leverage
Per Witkoff, the crucial element to achieving a agreement was the Israeli government's move to strike Hamas negotiators in the Gulf state. It was a move that angered US partners in the Arab world but provided the president bargaining power to pressure Israel's leader Benjamin Netanyahu into reaching an agreement.
Trump gained from a long record of siding with Israel dating back to his initial presidency, encompassing his choice to relocate the American embassy to Jerusalem, to change America's position on the legality of Jewish communities in the occupied territories and, in recent times, his backing for Israeli defense operations against the Islamic Republic.
The American leader, actually, is more popular among Israelis than Netanyahu – a position that provided him with unique influence over the Israeli leader.
Combine Trump's political and economic ties to influential Arab nations in the area, and he had a abundant negotiating strength to secure an deal.
Regarding the conflict in Ukraine, on the other hand, the president has much less influence. In recent months, he has swung between attempts to strong-arm Putin and then the Ukrainian leader, all with minimal visible progress.
Trump has threatened to impose new sanctions on Russian energy exports and to provide Ukraine with advanced missile systems. But he has also recognised that such actions could harm the global economy and intensify the war.
At the same time, the president has criticized openly Zelensky, halting briefly intelligence-sharing with the country and suspending weapon deliveries to the nation - only to then back off in the face of concerned European allies who warn a Ukrainian collapse could destabilise the whole area.
Trump loves to tout his skill to meet and negotiate deals, but his personal discussions with both Putin and Zelensky haven't seemed to advance the war any closer to a peaceful end.
The Russian president may actually be using Trump's desire for a deal – and faith in in-person deal-making - as a means of influencing him.
During the summer, Russia's leader consented to a high-level meeting in Alaska at the time when it seemed probable that Trump would approve on congressional sanctions package supported by GOP senators. That bill was afterwards delayed.
Last week, as news emerged that the US administration was seriously contemplating shipping Tomahawk cruise missiles and air defense systems to Kyiv, the president of Russia called the US president who then touted the potential summit in Budapest.
The next day, the president welcomed Ukraine's leader at the White House, but departed empty-handed after a allegedly tense meeting.
The US leader maintained that he was not being manipulated by the Russian president.
"As you are aware, I have been manipulated all my life by skilled operators, and I came out successfully," he said.
However the president of Ukraine later commented on the sequence of events.
"As soon as the issue of advanced weaponry became a less accessible for us – for Ukraine – the Russian side quickly became less engaged in negotiations," he said.
Thus, in a matter of days, Trump has shifted from considering the idea of sending missiles to Ukraine to organizing a meeting in Hungary with Russia's leader and confidentially pressuring the Ukrainian president to surrender the entire Donbas region – including territory Russian forces has been unable to conquer.
He has ultimately decided on calling for a ceasefire along current battle lines – something the Russian government has refused to accept.
On the campaign trail previously, the candidate vowed that he could end the Ukraine war in a matter of hours. He has since abandoned that pledge, admitting that concluding the hostilities is turning out more difficult than he anticipated.
It has been a rare acknowledgement of the constraints of his authority – and the difficulty of establishing a framework for peace when neither side wants, or is able to, give up the fight.